We Can Win SD-3

It seems like a given that the Senate District 3 Special Election is a toss-up between Charlie Dean and Dennis Baxley and the Democrats have no chance. This makes no sense. I understand why the Republicans think this, that's what they're supposed to think. They are supposed to be confident and believe they are going to win. Why are Democrats agreeing with them?

The District, one of the most gerrymandered in the state, maybe the country, has a huge differential in party identification. There are more than 50 thousand more registered Democrats than Republicans and more than 30 thousand independents and no party registrations. Republicans are way behind in the District. The District has a high minority population -- almost 17%. It is a majority female district -- over 51%. Over 58% of the District are people without any college attendance. 48% of the district makes less than $35k a year.

The seat was held by Nancy Argenziano, not exactly the most conservative Republican in the state and was held by Democrat Richard Mitchell prior to that. The District does not seem overly partisan and has given the majority of its votes to a variety of politicians over the years in various elections: Charlie Crist (R-2006, 2000), Alex Sink (D-2006), George W. Bush (R-2000, 2004), Bill Nelson (D-2006, 2000, 1998), Tom Gallagher (R-2000), Bob Graham over Charlie Crist (D-1998), Jeb Bush (R-1998), Katherine Harris (R-1998), Bob Butterworth (D-1998), Bill Clinton (D-1996). This is a district that votes for the individual, not the party and likes to vote for people who are different and who aren't particularly beholden to anyone else (with some exceptions, of course). For instance, the District liked Katherine Harris in 1998 before she sold out the state, but rejected her in 2006 overwhelmingly. The Miami Herald refers to SD-3 as a swing district and polls have shown that an unknown Democrat beats an unkown Republican. I'm not sure that Dean or Baxley fits the pattern of politicians elected in this district.

The District can be won by a Democrat who is moderate but is an independent fighter. It can be won by someone with ideas. It can be won by a strong get-out-the-vote operation. It can be won with enough money. It can be won by someone who has strength in one of the major population centers -- Citrus County, Ocala or Tallahassee -- who can do well in another one of those areas and who appeals to independent-minded rural voters.

The good news is that all of these things are possible in this special election. The two Democrats in the race -- Mark Ravenscraft and Suzan Franks -- come from Tallahassee and Citrus County. Ocala has a much stronger operation than they did in other recent elections. Baxley, in particular, is an extremist. Dean isn't a whole lot better. Either one of them will probably raise more than a million dollars, but a Dem with half that could be competitive, particularly in a District this dispersed and in an election cycle this short. Republicans will try to buy the election. Democrats need to win it with ideas. The netroots can help. We need to develop a powerful online presence that can help Democrats win races like this one. You don't have to live in the district to help. Blog about the race. Donate money. Volunteer. This race can be won and the only thing that will prevent us from winning it is us.